sábado, 16 de julho de 2016

Euro-fantasias que nos custaram muito caro


Houve economistas que perceberam muito bem a perversidade da criação do euro. Um deles, Rudiger Dornbusch, escreveu isto:

A luta para alcançar a união monetaria, na fórmula de Maastricht, pode vir a ser recordada como uma das mais inúteis batalhas da história europeia. Os custos para lá chegar são grandes, os benefícios económicos pequenos, e a probabilidade de um desaire enorme. (…)
A crítica da UEM mais séria é a de que, abandonando os ajustamentos pela taxa de câmbio, transfere para o mercado do trabalho a tarefa de ajustar a competitividade e os preços relativos [produção interna versus produção importada] (…)
Se uma região entra em declínio porque, por exemplo, as suas exportações se tornaram obsoletas, a deflação tem que desempenhar o papel da desvalorização. (…)
Nas regiões atrasadas o desemprego aumentará, assim como os problemas sociais e as queixas contra a integração. (…) Se as taxas de câmbio são abandonadas, enquanto instrumento económico, qualquer outra coisa terá de ocupar o seu lugar. Os promotores de Maastricht cautelosamente evitaram dizer qual seria essa outra coisa. Mercado de trabalho competitivo é a resposta, mas essa é uma palavra feia numa Europa do Bem-Estar social.
Foreign Affairs, September 1, 1996 - Euro Fantasies: Common Currency as Panacea

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